The White House News

Under the healthcare bill currently being considered by the Senate, spending on Medicaid, the healthcare program that covers 75 million Americans, would increase from $393 billion this year to $464 billion in 2027—and that’s adjusting for inflation.

Yet Democrats are claiming this is a “cut” to the program. Only in Washington would anyone have the nerve to claim an 18 percent increase in government spending on top of inflation is a “cut.”

The reality is that the Senate’s healthcare bill, like the legislation passed by the House of Representatives, strengthens and reforms Medicaid.

Medicaid has seen out of control spending growth: twenty years ago, spending on the program was under $200 billion annually; within a decade, it is expected to top $1 trillion in total spending.

The Senate bill would refocus the program on the people it was designed to serve, who need the most help: the disabled, the elderly, and pregnant mothers and their children. It would give states the flexibility they need to serve those populations and come up with cost-saving, quality-improving innovations. It would also fix the flawed incentives that have driven out of control spending on Medicaid, while ensuring states have the resources they need to protect their vulnerable populations.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has consistently failed to accurately predict how legislation will impact health insurance coverage. For example, in 2012, the CBO estimated that 25 million people would have coverage under Obamacare right now. According to a June 2017 report from HHS, only 10.3 million were actually enrolled. CBO’s guess was off by nearly 15 million people. And as the chart shows, CBO has consistently gotten it wrong.

The CBO’s history of inaccuracy is reason enough not to blindly trust its analysis of the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA). In fact, CBO’s past inaccuracies contribute to its misleading analysis of insurance coverage under the BCRA. The starting point CBO uses to score the BCRA says that 15 million people should be enrolled through Obamacare’s exchanges right now – wrong again.

The CBO was wrong when it first analyzed Obamacare in 2010. And it was wrong when it updated its projections in 2012 and 2014. Even today, the CBO is using a starting point from 2016 to predict the impact of repealing and replacing Obamacare that has already been proven, well, wrong.