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FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., is firing a warning shot to agencies and departments within the federal government about a potential transition to a future Trump administration – telling the Democratic administration that it needs to follow federal requirements.

Hagerty has written to all federal agencies, in letters obtained by Fox News Digital, warning of applicable provisions in laws regarding appropriations that limit departments’ ability to transfer funds or change programs during the transition period.

“As we move into a presidential transition period, I write today to remind you of your statutory transfer-of-funds authority and change-of-program requirements under the Further Consolidated Appropriations and Extensions Act 2024…which will continue to apply with the same force during the transition,” he wrote.

RFK JR SAYS TRUMP MOVE IS SOMETHING NO OTHER PRESIDENT’S DONE BEFORE

“Compliance with these requirements must be a priority for the outgoing administration, given the criminal and administrative consequences of failing to do so,” he said.

He argues that the law limits moving funds, altering programs and prohibits employees from obligating federal dollars – with potential criminal sanctions or firing. 

ON ELECTION EVE, HARRIS AND TRUMP HOLD DUELING RALLIES IN THE BIGGEST OF THE BATTLEGROUNDS

READ THE LETTER – APP USERS, CLICK HERE:

“As the Biden administration works to transfer the power and authorities of the President of the United States and the Executive Branch in a timely, transparent, and lawful manner, adherence to these legal obligations is imperative,” he wrote.

The letter comes ahead of what could become a fraught transition period should former President Donald Trump be elected to the White House for a second time. 

The Trump transition team clashed with the Obama administration in 2016 over assessments that Russia meddled in the election. In 2020, Trump refused to accept the results of the election and was indicted last year on felony charges for working to overturn the results of the election.

President Biden made headlines in August when he said he was not confident about a peaceful transfer of power if Vice President Kamala Harris wins.

“If Trump loses, I’m not confident at all,” he said in an interview.

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“He means what he says. We don’t take him seriously. He means it,” he said.

The administration began offering resources to both Trump and Harris in August ahead of a potential transition, which involves the vetting and selection of more than 4,000 appointees and depends of infrastructure built during the period before the election. The Associated Press reported that a federal transition coordination council has been holding regular meetings to prepare to hand over the reins in January 2025.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Nine competitive Senate races will likely determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress. 

Democrats are fighting to retain their narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate. Democrats are defending 23 seats, including three held by independents who caucus with them. That’s compared with just 11 seats that Republicans hope to keep in their column, according to the Associated Press. 

The Senate races in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are considered Toss-Ups, according to the latest Fox News Power Rankings. The Montana and Nebraska races for Senate are considered leaning Republican, while the Senate contests in Arizona, Maryland and Nevada lean Democrat on Election Day. 

In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, and Republican candidate Mike Rogers are facing off for a chance to replace Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who is concluding her 24-year Senate career. 

It could be the best chance Republicans have had in decades of winning a Senate seat in Michigan. The last time a Republican secured election to the upper chamber was in 1994, when Spencer Abraham defeated Democrat Bob Carr by 10 points. Abraham later lost to Stabenow in 2000. 

STEFANIK SLAMS DEMOCRATS’ ‘SCARE TACTICS’ ON TRUMP’S RECORD WITH WOMEN ON IVF, ABORTION

Rogers was elected to Congress in 2000 and represented Michigan’s 8th District until 2014. The once chair of the House Intelligence Committee, the Republican served as a commissioned officer in the U.S. Army through the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps and later worked as a special agent in the FBI. 

Slotkin, who currently represents Michigan’s 7th District, has worked for the CIA and the U.S. Department of Defense and served three tours in Iraq. Both campaigns have focused on concerns over Chinese influence and highlighted their security experience in the Middle East and domestically. 

In Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown faces a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno in what’s projected to be the most expensive race outside the presidential contest, according to the Marion Star, given the outcome could determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress. 

Former President Trump endorsed Moreno earlier this year in the Senate Republican primary. 

Moreno briefly ran for Senate in 2022 to replace retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, but JD Vance, now Trump’s vice presidential running mate, won the nomination and later the general election. 

Trump carried Ohio by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. 

In Pennsylvania, considered a pivotal battleground in the presidential race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is up against Republican challenger Dave McCormick. 

McCormick, a West Point graduate who served in Iraq in the 82nd Airborne Division and later as the CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, took the stage ahead of Trump at the Republican presidential nominee’s last rally in the state Monday night. McCormick told a Pittsburgh crowd that his opponent, Casey, was a “career politician” with more than 30 years in office, before also attacking Vice President Harris. 

McCormick previously ran an unsuccessful primary bid for Senate in 2022, losing the nomination to Dr. Mehmet Oz. Oz was defeated by Democrat John Fetterman.

Casey, whose father served as governor for two terms, is one of the most recognized politicians in the state. He is seeking a fourth term in the Senate and has been successful in six statewide elections since 1996.

Wisconsin’s hotly contested Senate race pits two-term Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin against Republican Eric Hovde, a millionaire businessman backed by Trump who poured millions of his own money into the contest.

While Baldwin’s voting record is liberal, she emphasized bipartisanship throughout the campaign. Baldwin became the first statewide Democratic candidate to win an endorsement from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau, the state’s largest farm organization, in more than 20 years.

Her first television ad noted that her buy-American bill was signed into law by Trump. In July, she touted Senate committee approval of a bill she co-authored with Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, that seeks to ensure that taxpayer-funded inventions are manufactured in the United States.

JD VANCE TELLS NC CROWD HARRIS CAN’T DEAL WITH CHINA, RUSSIA IF SHE ‘RUNS’ FROM ‘FRIENDLY AMERICAN MEDIA’

Hovde has portrayed Baldwin as an out-of-touch liberal career politician who didn’t do enough to combat inflation, illegal immigration and crime. He has stressed that Baldwin has been in elected office since 1987, including the past 12 years in the Senate and 14 in the House before that. 

Hovde’s wealth, primarily his management of Utah-based Sunwest Bank and ownership of a $7 million Laguna Beach, California, estate, has been a key line of attack from Baldwin, who has tried to cast him as an outsider who doesn’t represent Wisconsin values.

Three-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana faces perhaps his toughest election challenge yet on Tuesday, with control of the Senate on the line in a state that’s veered sharply rightward since the 68-year-old grain farmer’s first election.

Republicans have pinned their hopes on Tim Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and founder of an aerial firefighting company. Sheehy, 38, had early backing from party leaders, including Trump, clearing the political newcomer’s path to win the June primary.

This is the first time Tester’s name appears on the same ballot as Trump, who won Montana by wide margins in 2016 and 2020.

A Sheehy victory would seal Republican Party dominance across the five-state Northern Plains region: Tester entered office as one of six Democratic senators in the largely rural swath of American heartland that also includes Wyoming, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. He’s now the only one.

The lawmaker also is the sole remaining Democrat to hold statewide office in Montana.

Two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer faces her strongest re-election challenge yet Tuesday as she takes Dan Osborn, a former labor union boss who eschewed both major political parties to run as an independent while painting himself as a working class champion.

The state GOP, whose leadership is loyal to Trump, endorsed primary challengers to all five of the Republicans who represent Nebraska in Congress, including Fischer.

Fischer held a recent news conference to showcase the backing of several state Republicans, including popular former Gov. Dave Heineman. She also leaned into her support for Trump, despite having called for him to leave the 2016 race in response to the notorious “Access Hollywood” tape.

Trump has endorsed Fischer for re-election, which she has touted in her campaign ads.

Osborn, a 20-year industrial mechanic and veteran of the Navy and Nebraska Army National Guard, successfully led a 2021 strike at the Kellogg’s cereal plant in Omaha to gain higher wages for roughly 1,400 workers following a year in which the company saw soaring revenue.

Osborn has leaned into that background in centering his platform on what he says is a need for equitable economic policies. In his political ads, he’s contrasted his own story with Fischer’s, accusing her of enriching herself while in office as average families struggle financially.

Well-known former television news anchor and staunch Trump ally Kari Lake is competing against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, an Iraq War veteran, in Tuesday’s election for U.S. Senate in a state with a recent history of extremely close elections.

The winner of the Senate race will replace Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party two years ago. 

Lake made national headlines with her 2022 campaign for Arizona governor. She has never acknowledged losing that race and called herself the “lawful governor” in her 2023 book, according to the Associated Press. She continued her unsuccessful fight in court to overturn it even after beginning her Senate campaign, and, as recently as last week refused to admit defeat in a contentious CNN interview.

Lake has focused on border security in her Senate campaign. 

Gallego, who enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and fought in Iraq in 2005 in a unit that sustained heavy casualties, has relentlessly attacked Lake’s support for a state law dating to the Civil War that outlawed abortions under nearly all circumstances. Lake has tacked to the middle on the abortion issue. 

Larry Hogan, a popular Republican who won two terms as governor, is the most competitive candidate for the GOP in years in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin. Still, he is facing an uphill battle against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the county executive of Prince George’s County, who could make history as the state’s first Black U.S. senator in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1.

The stakes are unusually high for a Maryland race that includes a Republican who won significant Democratic support in his 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial victories. Hogan is only the second Republican in Maryland history to be re-elected governor.

Abortion has been a major issue in a campaign taking place at the same time that voters in Maryland and eight other states will be considering a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Alsobrooks has prioritized abortion rights in her campaign, saying one of her first actions as a senator would be to sponsor legislation to codify Roe into federal law. Hogan also says he would co-sponsor such legislation, but Alsobrooks is quick to point to a Hogan veto when he was governor of a bill in Maryland to expand abortion access in 2022.

In a presidential swing state, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen – a former computer programmer and synagogue president – is facing a challenge from Republican Sam Brown, a retired Army captain whose face is still scarred from injuries he suffered in Afghanistan. 

The first-term Rosen has outspent Brown by more than 3-1 in the contest, positioning herself as a nonideological senator who delivers for her home state on issues like broadband internet access and a high-speed rail connection with Southern California. 

Brown, who was awarded the Purple Heart, has campaigned on his biography and the state’s cost-of-living crisis, particularly acute in working-class Nevada. He’s had trouble gaining traction, though a last-minute infusion of GOP money in late October came as Republicans, cheered by strong turnout for their party in early voting, hoped Brown could upend expectations in the race.

Trump endorsed Brown in the state’s primary. 

Trump ally and British parliament member Nigel Farage says Vice President Kamala Harris should pardon the former president if he loses in order to “dampen down potential tensions” following Election Day. 

Farage, the leader of the Reform UK party, made the remark this week in an interview with The Telegraph, during which he declared that “I still think he is going to win.” 

“If she gets in on Tuesday I hope she pardons him. She could look magnanimous and it would dampen down potential tensions,” Farage said.  

In September, Judge Juan Merchan decided to postpone Trump’s sentencing in New York v. Trump until after the presidential election. Trump had been found guilty in an unprecedented criminal trial on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. 

ELECTION DAY 2024: LIVE UPDATES 

Farage also told The Telegraph that he has “never gone along with the stolen election narrative” surrounding the 2020 presidential race. 

“The whole point of voting is we don’t need to fight,” he said. “It is what we fought two world wars for. We settle our differences with the ballot box.” 

GOVERNMENT, PRIVATE BUSINESSES ERECT BARRICADES IN PREPARATION FOR ELECTION DAY 

Farage added that if Trump loses to Harris and “If it was clear and decisive then maybe it’s time [for Trump] to go and play golf at Turnberry,” referencing Trump’s course in Scotland. 

At a rally in Reading, Pa., on the eve of Election Day, Trump described Farage – who was in attendance – as “the big winner of the last election in the U.K.” 

“He’s a little bit of a rebel, but that’s good, you know? That’s good. Don’t change. Nigel,” Trump added. 

Fox News’ Brooke Singman contributed to this report. 

There are 11 gubernatorial races down for decision on Election Day, with four being competitive, according to the Fox News Power Rankings.

This year, up to 150 million Americans are expected to cast ballots in the U.S. presidential election, while levers will also be pulled for gubernatorial races and other down-ballot races.

New Hampshire is the most difficult governor’s race to call and is considered a toss-up, as former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte takes on Democrat Joyce Craig, who served three two-year terms as mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest city.

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They are bidding to replace GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, a popular governor with a large national profile, who decided not to seek re-election after winning four straight two-year terms as the Granite State governor. Ayotte received Sununu’s endorsement this summer.

Despite having a Republican governor, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 2004.

Ayotte is also a former state attorney general who narrowly lost her Senate re-election in 2016 after breaking with former President Donald Trump following the release of the infamous “Access Hollywood” video. As she ran for her party’s nomination for governor, Ayotte endorsed Trump this year.

Morse, facing an uphill challenge against the higher polling and better funded Ayotte, repeatedly questioned her conservative record as a senator and her support for Trump.

The pair have clashed on local issues including taxes, the opioid crisis and housing homelessness, as well as abortion. New Hampshire law allows abortions up to the 24th week of a pregnancy.

Craig has accused Ayotte of voting against abortion rights and then changing her position to run for governor, according to WBUR. 

Ayotte voted to de-fund Planned Parenthood as a senator and says she will support the state’s right to decide the issue following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.

“I will fight with everything I have to defend New Hampshire’s right to decide this issue and protect our law,” Ayotte said.

In Indiana, Republican gubernatorial candidate Sen. Mike Braun should have been able to cruise to victory against any Democratic opponent. However, Braun’s hardline position on abortion has given Democrat Jennifer McCormick an opening. The state enacted a near total ban on abortion two years ago, which McCormick argues is too extreme. 

Braun maintains that Indiana should be a “right-to-life state. He was endorsed by former President Trump before May’s GOP primary, who took the Hoosier state by large margins in 2016 and 2020.

Braun is aiming to extend the GOP’s 20-year hold on Indiana’s governor’s office by defeating McCormick, a former Republican who split with the party after serving as the state’s schools superintendent.

The GOP has controlled Indiana’s governor’s office since Mitch Daniels defeated the late Gov. Joe Kernan in 2004. Additionally, Democrats have not won a statewide office in Indiana since 2012.

There are also unusual partisan dynamics at play. The GOP’s candidate for lieutenant governor could impact support for the Republican ticket among moderates, and there is a Libertarian on the ballot.

Indiana’s governor race has moved from Solid R to Likely R.

In the key swing state of North Carolina, current Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson faces an uphill battle to defeat Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein in the battle to replace Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term-limited and not allowed to run for re-election.

The key talking point in the race involves allegations that Robinson made controversial comments on a porn website more than a decade ago.

Robinson has denied saying those words, and Republicans began to distance themselves from the candidate afterward, while at least four top staffers resigned in the wake of the report. Former President Trump endorsed Robinson before the March primary but also began distancing himself.

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Stein has attacked Robinson for his stance on abortion. Since Reconstruction ended in the 1890s, North Carolina has only elected three Republican governors.

If elected, Robinson would be North Carolina’s first Black governor.

The race is Likely D.

Longtime Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson is hoping to keep the governor’s mansion in Democratic hands, while former Rep. Dave Reichert is trying to become the state’s first GOP governor in 40 years. The Evergreen State has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1988.

Reichert, who served as King County Sheriff for 33 years, is best known for his role in capturing the Green River Killer, a notorious serial killer. His tenure as sheriff and his subsequent service in Congress have been central to his campaign messaging, positioning him as a tough on crime public safety candidate. 

For his part, Ferguson’s campaign has been marked by his sharp criticism of Reichert on hot button issues such as abortion, as Ferguson has attacked the former Republican congressman for his previous support for a nationwide abortion ban as out of touch with Washington’s values. 

Ferguson, has been the state’s attorney general since 2013. He came to national prominence by repeatedly suing the Trump administration, including bringing the lawsuit that blocked Trump’s initial travel ban on citizens of several majority Muslim nations.

Ferguson’s endorsements include prominent state leaders like U.S. Senate Pro Tempore Patty Murray and Gov. Jay Inslee.

Reichert faced an uphill battle in a state considered a Democratic stronghold.

Of the remaining gubernatorial races, Delaware is considered Solid D, while Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont and West Virginia are Solid R.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser, Matthew Richter and Jamie Joseph, as well as The Associated Press, contributed to this report. 

The Republican Party is determined not to be outmanned in the courts regarding the 2024 elections, with GOP leaders leaning heavily on a new, litigation-focused “election integrity” effort launched earlier this year in a bid to avoid many of the same pitfalls as 2020.

The two-pronged effort seeks to improve the GOP ground game across the country, both by recruiting and training poll observers and by adding more transparency to the voting process, senior Republican Party officials told Fox News Digital in an interview.

To date, they have recruited some 230,000 volunteers across the country, RNC officials said, including 5,000 lawyers concentrated primarily in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

On the eve of Election Day, it is the lawyers whose talents could be especially useful in the days and weeks to come. 

SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS PENNSYLVANIA PROVISIONAL BALLOT RULING, IN A MAJOR LOSS FOR GOP

That is because the second half of the election integrity push focuses on litigation. Some of the lawsuits are aimed at ensuring “poll worker parity” and access for Republican observers at many election sites across the country, senior party officials told Fox News Digital.

However, they have also filed dozens of lawsuits aimed at cracking down on voter identification laws, tightening citizenship verification standards and adding new requirements for mail-in ballots and provisional ballots accepted by various states. 

The Republican Party has been especially aggressive in filing these pre-election lawsuits, which officials describe as helping “set the rules of the road in key swing states.”

As of this writing, party officials said they have filed more than 130 lawsuits—the vast majority of the roughly 200 election-related lawsuits in the 2024 election.

While the flurry of GOP-led lawsuits have dominated headlines in the final race to Election Day—primarily in the seven swing states considered to hold outsize importance in determining the next president— Republican Party officials pointed to courtroom victories won as early as this summer as some of their biggest achievements.

One example was the RNC’s successful lawsuit against the city of Detroit in August. 

The RNC had sued to add more Republican election inspectors to the city’s 300-plus voting precincts, citing a “7.5-to-one” ratio of Democrat inspectors to Republican inspectors. Republicans successfully argued that the disparity ran afoul of state law, which requires “an equal number, as nearly as possible” of election officials from both major political parties. More Republican observers were added as a result. 

A more recent win occurred last week in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where a judge sided with the GOP’s request to extend early voting deadlines from Tuesday, Nov. 5, to Friday, Nov. 8.

BEHIND-THE-SCENES BATTLES: LEGAL CHALLENGES THAT COULD IMPACT THE VOTE BEFORE ELECTION DAY BEGINS

Republican officials have touted success in achieving more transparency in state elections. 

“We really view this as making America’s elections run in a transparent and trustworthy way. And that’s a net positive for everyone in this country, regardless of Republican or Democrat [party affiliation],” a senior RNC official told Fox News Digital in an interview.

Still, on the eve of Election Day, it remains to be seen whether these efforts will have accomplished their stated goal of establishing more trust in U.S. elections.

That is because the concept of “election security” not only requires certain safeguards to be placed around the voter registration and ballot-casting process, but also that the voters themselves then trust the results of the vote as legitimate.

A fresh AP-NORC poll found that Democrats are far more likely than their Republican counterparts to express confidence in the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. 

The poll found that while 71% of registered Democratic voters said they have “a great deal” of confidence in the national election outcome, just one-third of their Republican counterparts, or 24%, reported the same. 

SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS PENNSYLVANIA PROVISIONAL BALLOT RULING, IN A MAJOR LOSS FOR GOP

While some of these lawsuits could be used by the RNC as a pretext to challenge the outcome of certain states after Election Day, legal experts said it is unclear what impact any of these legal challenges could have in contesting the results — even if the outcome in certain states is just as close as expected in a neck-and-neck election. 

Courts are highly disinclined to take up cases after Election Day, Andrew McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York, told Fox News in an interview. 

“We want to have the game be fair, in the sense that there’s bright lines way before you ever get to Election Day,” McCarthy said. “So everybody has their eyes open about what the rules are.”

“It’s really hard to get a court to involve itself after an election has taken place and where they’re in a position of potentially changing the outcome of the election,” he added.

That is especially true of the nation’s top court, Trey Gowdy, a former federal prosecutor and member of Congress, told Fox News Digital in an interview.

“I think the Supreme Court is very wary of being drawn into overtly political fights,” he said. 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

A respected election expert in Nevada has released his final analysis for the presidential race in the Silver State and predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will carry the state by a razor-thin margin over former President Doanld Trump.

Jon Ralston, editor and CEO of The Nevada Independent, wrote in a blog post on Monday that he predicts the crucial swing state of Nevada by a margin of 48.5% to 48.2%.

“It’s a simple question: Can the Democrats catch up?” Ralston asked, referencing the early voting lead that Republicans have surprisingly amassed in the state along with significantly cutting down the voter registration lead Democrats usually enjoy.

“It’s really a coin flip, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data who can’t decide. I have gone back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazing over with numbers and models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why.”

BEHIND-THE-SCENES BATTLES: LEGAL CHALLENGES THAT COULD IMPACT THE VOTE BEFORE ELECTION DAY BEGINS

Ralston explained that he believes many Harris voters who are registered as “nonpartisan” will get out and vote as part of the “Reid Machine” put in place by the late Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, the U.S. Senate majority leader from 2007 to 2015, to help pool resources to maximize support for candidates up and down the ballot. 

“The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause.”

I’M SAM BROWN: THIS IS WHY I WANT NEVADA’S VOTE FOR SENATE

Ralson wrote that his previous analysis “concludes Trump probably has a 30,000 raw vote lead right now,” but he believes there are “a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted that favor Democrats” and suggested early GOP turnout is cannibalizing part of its Election Day vote.

Ralston added, “I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close.”

A Trump campaign official told Fox News Digital that Ralston’s “prediction” is “all wishcasting and not based on data.”

“The MSNBC contributor hates Trump and admitted as such in his prediction. Republicans are turning out and Democrats aren’t in Nevada. The math is the math.”

Ralston, who said he has “never missed a Nevada presidential call,” also predicted that incumbent Dem. Sen. Jacky Rosen would win re-election in Nevada and that Democrats down the ticket would perform well. He did admit he has “botched races down-ballot.”

Nevada and its six electoral votes are expected to play a critical role in the presidential election in a state where the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Trump with a one-point lead.

President Biden won Nevada by roughly 34,000 votes in 2020 and Nevada has voted for every Democrat who has run for president since 1992, except the two elections with President George W. Bush on the ballot. However, the average margin across those eight elections is just 4.1 points.

Election Day is here, and tens of millions of Americans are now heading to the polls across the country.

Their votes will be the deciding factor in 22 toss-up House races that will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the chamber for the next two years.

Beneath the surface, the battle for the gavel is getting more expensive. House candidates have spent more than $3 billion on their races so far, concentrated in roughly 40 battleground districts.

Arizona’s 1st District covers a northeast chunk of Maricopa and is represented by Republican Rep. David Schweikert, who has served Arizona in Congress since 2011. Biden won the area he represents by 1.5 points in the last presidential election (Dave’s Redistricting), making this an ultra-competitive race. Schweikert is up against Democrat and former state Rep. Amish Shah. It’s a Toss-up on the Power Rankings.

‘ADMIRES DICTATORS’: HARRIS CONTINUES COMPARING TRUMP TO HITLER DURING BATTLEGROUND STATE TOWN HALL

Arizona’s 6th District is tucked away in the southeast corner of the state. The 6th District is represented by freshman GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. Biden won this area by an even thinner margin in 2020 — just 0.1 percentage points — making it another closely watched race. Ciscomani is running against Kirsten Engel, another Democratic former state representative. It’s also a Toss-up.

California’s 22nd District is home to Rep. David Valadao, one of two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. He kept this district on a three-point margin in the midterms, but Biden won it by 13 points in the last presidential election. Valadao’s strong centrist brand keeps this race, against former assemblyman Rudy Salas, at Toss Up this cycle.

California’s 41st District is represented by Republican Ken Calvert, who has served in the House since 1993. He won his most recent race by under five points, and this year, he’ll face the same competitor: former federal prosecutor and Democrat Will Rollins. This race is a Toss Up.

California’s 45th District went to President Biden by six points last cycle; its heavy and right-leaning Asian American population makes it highly competitive. Incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democratic lawyer Derek Tran in this district, which includes parts of Los Angeles. It moved to Toss Up last month.

Colorado’s 8th District starts in rural Weld County, where Trump won by 18 points in 2020. But the farther down you go, the more suburban it becomes. Strong Democratic turnout in Adams County, which Biden won by 16 points, gave Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo her first win in 2022. This time, the incumbent is up against Republican state politician Gabe Evans. This is a toss-up race.

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Iowa’s 1st District went to second-term GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by six votes in 2020, and while redistricting gave her a more comfortable win in the midterms, she remains vulnerable in the Davenport and Iowa City district. Former state Rep. Christina Bohannan is the Democrat candidate. It’s a toss-up in the Power Rankings.

Maine’s 2nd District sees Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden running as one of five Democrats in districts Trump won in the last presidential election (Golden won by 6 points). The former Marine made headlines this year when he said he “didn’t know” whether he would vote for Biden again and was one of the first Democrats to question Biden’s mental fitness. This time, he’s up against Maine State Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault, who says he wants “more balance and less extremism” in politics. This race is a Power Rankings toss-up.

Michigan’s 7th District sees Democrat Elissa Slotkin vacating this south central Michigan district, which she flipped by a 5.4-point margin in the midterms. This year, it’s a battle between two former state senators — Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.

Michigan’s 8th District is also without an incumbent. Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring after 12 years in the House, making this a race between Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge. The seat includes Flint and the Tri-Cities area, so winning the working-class vote will be critical. It’s also a toss-up on the Power Rankings.

North Carolina’s 1st District saw Democratic Rep. Don Davis win this open seat in the midterms by under five points. This year, he’s up against Army veteran Laurie Buckhout for this northeastern district with a high proportion of Black voters. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.

Nebraska’s 2nd District sees incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon defending his seat against Nebraska state legislator Tony Vargas. Bacon won his seat from a Democrat in 2016, and he has since won every election by less than 3 points.

New Mexico’s 2nd District occupies most of the southwest land area of the state. It includes Las Cruces and parts of Albuquerque, but it also has a chunk of rural votes. Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez won the district by just 1,350 votes in the midterms; this year, he faces the seat’s former Republican occupant, Yvette Herrell. This is a Power Rankings toss-up.

HARRIS, TRUMP, HOLD ELECTION EVE DUELING RALLIES IN THE BIGGEST OF THE BATTLEGROUNDS

New York’s 4th District lies closer to New York City and includes the ultra-competitive Nassau County. The county is comprised of Long Beach, Garden City and Uniondale, where former President Trump held a rally last month. Incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito spoke at that event. He’s up against local Democratic Town Supervisor Laura Gillen. It’s ranked toss-up on the Power Rankings.

New York’s 19th District is the third Hudson Valley battleground with a moderate incumbent. The 19th District includes the Catskills and the Finger Lakes. GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro flipped this seat in the midterms with a roughly 5,000-vote margin. This year, he faces Democratic attorney Josh Riley. This race is a toss-up.

Ohio’s 9th District lies in northwestern Ohio, and the seat has been held by populist Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur since 1983, but her margins have shrunk as Ohio has drifted right. She faces conservative Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin on the ballot this year; it’s another Power Rankings toss-up.

Ohio’s 13th District includes Youngstown and parts of Akron; it has been represented by Democrat Rep. Emilia Sykes since 2023. Sykes faces Republican former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin this year. It’s also a toss-up.

Oregon’s 5th District ranges from parts of Portland out to the Cascades. GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer flipped this race in the midterms after Democrats booted out their incumbent moderate Democrat in a primary, but it’s a razor-thin race in 2024. The Democratic challenger this time around is state Rep. Janelle Bynum. It’s another Power Rankings Toss Up.

Pennsylvania’s 8th District has seen longtime Democrat Rep. Matt Cartwright serve the district for more than a decade. His margins have also shrunk over a decade of elections and through redistricting, down to 2.4 points in the last cycle. Cartwright’s opponent is local businessman and Republican Rob Bresnahan. The district includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. This race is also a Power Rankings Toss Up.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: sees rural voters in Cumberland and York counties give Republican Rep. Scott Perry the edge. He has represented the region since 2013. Perry won by 7.6 points in the midterms, but Democrats hope that Perry’s deep ties to the MAGA movement will make their candidate, former local news anchor Janelle Stelson, competitive. This race is ranked Leans GOP.

Virginia’s 7th District is more competitive than ever. Democrats have fielded Eugene Vindman, a Navy veteran, while Republicans are looking for a flip with attorney Derrick Anderson. 

The campaign has been marked by mini-scandals on both sides, but Vindman does not have the strong centrist brand that retiring Democrat Abigail Spanberger built. This district moves from Lean D to Toss Up.

Washington’s 3rd District offers a rematch between first-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Blue Dog Democrat who recently suggested that President Biden resign from office, and Joe Kent, her Republican challenger. It is a Toss Up on the Power Rankings.

Officials in battleground states say lawyers are ready on this Election Day to pursue legal action against any counties who try to disrupt or delay the vote certification process. 

The warnings come after a few counties in Arizona, Pennsylvania and New Mexico initially did not certify results or did so with incomplete tallies following the 2022 midterm elections, according to Politico. 

“If you don’t certify an election at the county level, or certify a canvas, you’re going to get indicted,” Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told Politico. “We’ve sent, on top of that, some what I would call sternly-worded letters out to folks to let them know.” 

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also said that lawyers have prepared draft legal filings in order to sue any county that tries to avoid certifying this year’s results. 

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“We’ve got great attorneys that we’re working with at the attorney general’s office, who are prepared as well, who were there in 2020 and ready to go,” Benson told Politico. “It’s more about just making sure we’re able to rapidly respond and are prepared to ensure that the law is followed.” 

During the last presidential election, former President Trump urged two members of Michigan’s Wayne County Board of Canvassers not to certify the results, according to a report from The Detroit News. 

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In September, during an event hosted by the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation & Research, Gabriel Sterling, the chief operating officer for the Georgia secretary of state’s office, said, “There are those who think they can magically hold up everything by one county… That is not going to happen, and the courts won’t allow for that,” according to Politico. 

“With the system we have in place, with the lawyers we have in place, we have game-planned a lot of this out,” he reportedly added. 

State election officials tell Politico that local officials are duty-bound to certify results and the task is not optional. 

Former President Donald Trump blasted former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., just stopping short of calling her an obscenity.

During remarks at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, the 2024 GOP presidential nominee called Pelosi a “crazy, horrible human being” and a “crooked person.”

“She’s an evil, sick, crazy,” Trump said, seemingly sounding out the first letter of the word he had in mind, while stopping just short of uttering the obscenity. “It starts with a B, but I won’t say it. I wanna say it.”

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He also referred to Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., as “Adam shifty Schiff” and “pencil neck,” saying that the congressman is “an unattractive guy” on the inside and outside.

During a recent appearance on MSNBC, Pelosi claimed that Trump is suffering “cognitive degeneration” and would not be capable of serving a four-year presidential term.

She said that those thinking of voting for Trump “have to know that he can’t last as president for four years with his brain deteriorating at the rate that it is … and they may be voting for President Vance, which would be a horrible thing for our country.”

HARRIS, TRUMP CONCLUDE CAMPAIGNING — NOW IT’S UP TO THE VOTERS AS ELECTION DAY 2024 GETS UNDERWAY

Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt blasted Pelosi in a statement to Fox News Digital.

“The only thing deteriorating is Nancy Pelosi who is a decrepit washed up corrupt politician who America can no longer stand,” Leavitt said in the statement. “She should go back to the City of San Francisco, which she has totally destroyed, and never return.”

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Pelosi, who is currently seeking re-election, has been serving in Congress for more than three decades. She took office in mid-1987.

Voters in 10 U.S. states will decide on major ballot initiatives this year that either expand or restrict abortion access for women, a highly polarizing issue but one that some advocacy groups do not believe will affect turnout quite as much as some had expected. 

It’s unclear to what extent this could impact Vice President Harris, who has focused heavily on abortion access and reproductive rights in her bid for the presidency.

In the final race to Election Day, some doubt the issue has lasting power to turn out voters to the same degree it did during the 2022 midterm elections, held just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“I think Democrats are dramatically overestimating the power of abortion,” Shawn Carney, president of the pro-life nonprofit group “40 Days for Life,” told Fox News in an interview. 

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The nonprofit has a grassroots presence in all 50 states and has canvassed heavily in the 10 states that will vote directly on abortion-related measures this year: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada and South Dakota.

The majority of these ballot measures seek to amend efforts passed in Republican-led states, whose leaders moved to restrict abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision on Roe.

Notable policies will be on the books in Missouri, where voters will have the option to reverse the state’s near-total ban, and Arizona, where voters can amend the state constitution to allow abortions through the 24-week mark.

The most populous state deciding on abortion measures is Florida, home to more than 13 million registered voters.

Voters there will decide whether to lift an existing law that bans abortions after six weeks and instead extend it to the point of fetal viability between 23 and 24 weeks.

“I think we have the best chance to win in Florida,” Carney said, citing the popularity in the state of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican and staunch advocate of pro-life issues.

“We have a great presence in Florida. We have great ‘40 Days’ campaigns throughout that great state.”

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Harris and other Democrats have worked to highlight the new risks to abortion access women face. But it’s not clear what impact this will have on turnout in a presidential election dominated by economic issues and immigration.

Former first lady Michelle Obama dedicated most of her stump speech at a Harris rally last week in Kalamazoo, Mich., to outlining the many ways women could see their reproductive rights diminished further.

“Your niece could be the one miscarrying in her bathtub after the hospital turned her away,” Obama told the audience. “Your daughter could be the one terrified to call the doctor if she’s bleeding during an unexpected pregnancy.”

Importantly, voters in states where abortion is on the ballot will vote on it independently, meaning it is “decoupled” from their presidential vote and votes for down-ballot leaders. This means that some staunch pro-choice supporters could theoretically vote for Trump and Republicans in their states while also voting to support pro-life procedures. 

This “decoupling” effort would indeed reflect public opinion that has shifted to support abortion. A Fox News poll conducted this year found that a record-high number of voters now say they support legalizing abortion in some form, including two-thirds who said they supported a nationwide law that would guarantee abortion access for women.

Fifty-nine percent said they believe abortion should be legal in “all or most cases,” up from the previous high of 57% in September 2022. 

But how much the issue of abortion will drive voter turnout this year – for those who are either for or against the new ballot measure – is unclear. 

National polls have seen abortion ranked consistently by voters as the third-most important issue in the 2024 election cycle, behind immigration and far behind the economy. 

Just 15% of voters ranked abortion as their No. 1 priority in 2024, according to a recent Fox News poll, compared to immigration, which 17% of voters said they viewed as the No. 1 issue, and the economy, which a strong 40% of voters ranked as their top priority.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.